How we validate our signals
Every number below is measured the honest way — no hindsight — across 369,614 tracked launches. Last recomputed July 25, 2026.
Creator rugged before
2.3×
17.9% rug vs 7.7% base
Proven-winner wallet
4.0×
15.6% graduate vs 2.2% base
Funder-chain flag
~1.0×
failed — removed from the product
Launches measured
369,614
live-caught, resolved
The short version
Most tools show you a “smart money” leaderboard built from raw past performance and let you assume it predicts the future. We measure whether our signals actually predicted outcomes they could not have known, publish the result, and delete the ones that fail. The edges below currently measure 2.3–4.0× — real, but nothing like the numbers marketed elsewhere. We think a validated edge with receipts is worth more than an unvalidated headline number.
How the measurement works
Temporal as-of (a signal is scored only from outcomes that RESOLVED before the launch — no hindsight), on live-caught launches only (indexed <10 min after on-chain creation, so early-holder snapshots are genuinely early). Lift = the signal group's rate ÷ the baseline rate.
Validated signals
Creator has rugged before
17.9% of these launches rugged vs a 7.7% baseline (n=94,715)
2.33×
Proven-winner wallet in early buyers (≥1 prior win)
9.9% graduated vs a 2.2% baseline (n=37,903)
2.57×
Proven-winner wallet in early buyers (≥2 prior wins)
13.4% graduated vs a 2.2% baseline (n=25,358)
3.48×
Proven-winner wallet in early buyers (≥3 prior wins)
15.6% graduated vs a 2.2% baseline (n=20,195)
4.04×
A signal we deleted
We also tested the funder-chain ("rug factory funder") signal the same way. De-confounded it is dead-neutral (~1.0×), so we do NOT use it — a signal that does not survive honest measurement should not be in a verdict.
What these numbers do not mean
- These are honest, measured edges — not "10× smart-money" hype. A validated edge published with its receipts beats an unvalidated headline number.
- The winner signal is a VARIANCE amplifier, not a safety signal: winner-present launches see more big pops AND more deep losses. It raises attention, not a buy recommendation.
- Everything rests on our rug/graduation detection accuracy and one asset class (Solana pump.fun); treat magnitudes as directional.
See it applied
Every launch in the live feed is scored with exactly these signals, and the base rates they are measured against are published too. If a signal stops earning its place, we will say so here.